India-Pakistan Relations: A Frosty History from Pre-Independence to Present Day & implications

 


The relationship between India and Pakistan is one of the most enduring rivalries of the modern era. Emerging from a deeply divided colonial legacy, their ties have been marred by wars, terrorism, distrust, and fleeting attempts at peace. From pre-Partition tensions to the latest Pahalgam terrorist attack in 2025, the journey has been turbulent, shaping not just South Asia but global geopolitics.

I. Origins of the Conflict: Pre-Independence Period

Early Tensions under British Rule

  • British colonial rule (1757–1947) sowed seeds of division, exploiting religious differences through "divide and rule" policies.
  • The 1857 Revolt, where Hindus and Muslims fought together, soon gave way to mistrust as Muslims were marginalized socio-politically afterward.

Rise of Separate Political Identities

  • 1885: Formation of the Indian National Congress to represent Indian political aspirations, perceived as Hindu-dominated over time.
  • 1906: Founding of the All-India Muslim League to protect Muslim political interests.
  • 1916 Lucknow Pact: A temporary Hindu-Muslim unity where Congress accepted separate Muslim electorates.
  • 1920s–30s: Communal riots, Hindu revivalist movements, and Muslim fears of Hindu majority rule deepened the rift.

Demand for a Separate Muslim State

  • 1940 Lahore Resolution: The Muslim League, under Muhammad Ali Jinnah, demanded independent states for Muslims in India's north-western and eastern zones, laying the foundation for Pakistan.

Final Push to Partition

  • 1946 Direct Action Day: Massive communal violence ensued.
  • With the British deciding to withdraw rapidly, Partition became inevitable, leading to mass migration, widespread massacres, and the creation of India and Pakistan in August 1947.

II. 1947–2025: A Chronology of Frosty Relations

1947–1948: First Indo-Pak War

  • Conflict over Kashmir erupted immediately after Partition, resulting in the division of the region and a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in 1949.

1965: Second Indo-Pak War

  • Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar aimed to incite rebellion in Kashmir but backfired into a full-fledged war, ending with the Tashkent Agreement.

1971: Bangladesh Liberation and War

  • India supported East Pakistan's (now Bangladesh) independence movement, resulting in Pakistan’s defeat and the creation of Bangladesh.
  • The Simla Agreement (1972) emphasized peaceful bilateral resolution of disputes, but distrust deepened.

1980s: Proxy Wars and Insurgency

  • Pakistan-backed militancy grew in Punjab and Kashmir.
  • India accused Pakistan’s ISI of supporting separatism and cross-border terrorism.

1998: Nuclear Tests

  • Both countries conducted nuclear tests, formalizing nuclear deterrence but escalating risks.

1999: Kargil Conflict

  • Pakistani soldiers and militants occupied Indian posts in Kargil. India launched Operation Vijay to evict intruders, reclaiming territory but losing trust permanently.

2001: Indian Parliament Attack

  • JeM militants stormed India's Parliament, bringing India and Pakistan to the brink of war again during Operation Parakram.

2008: Mumbai Terror Attacks

  • Coordinated attacks by Pakistani terrorists in Mumbai killed over 170 people, devastating bilateral relations.

2016: Uri Attack and Surgical Strikes

  • After a militant attack in Uri (J&K), India conducted "surgical strikes" across the LoC, signaling a new assertive doctrine.

2019: Pulwama Attack and Balakot Airstrikes

  • A JeM suicide bomber killed 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama.
  • India responded with an airstrike in Balakot, targeting terrorist infrastructure, followed by aerial dogfights.

2019: Revocation of Article 370

  • India removed the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, drawing sharp criticism from Pakistan and another freezing of diplomatic ties.

2021–2024: Fragile Ceasefire

  • The two countries agreed on maintaining the 2003 LoC ceasefire.
  • Despite occasional minor incidents, large-scale clashes reduced, though political dialogue remained frozen.

III. 2025: Pahalgam Terrorist Attack – A New Low

In April 2025, a terrorist attack struck a tourist bus in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killing several civilians, including foreign nationals. Early intelligence reports linked the attack to Pakistan-based terror outfits, with evidence suggesting ISI involvement in training and logistics support.

The attack has stirred outrage in India and globally. It threatens to unravel the fragile ceasefire and may push India towards a more aggressive military and diplomatic posture.

IV. Possible Implications for the Future

1. Heightened Diplomatic Confrontation

India is expected to pursue diplomatic isolation of Pakistan at the United Nations, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), and other international platforms.

2. Possible Retaliatory Strikes

Targeted military operations, similar to surgical strikes or even more intense covert operations, may be launched against terror infrastructure.

3. Internal Security Clampdown

India may further tighten security in Jammu and Kashmir, increasing counter-terror operations and surveillance, possibly impacting civil liberties but aimed at preemptive threat neutralization.

4. Freeze on All Bilateral Engagements

Any existing back-channel talks or minimal exchanges may be completely suspended, pushing the relationship to a new nadir.

5. Regional Instability Risks

Further escalation could strain India’s ties with China (given the China-Pakistan nexus), impact regional economic initiatives like CPEC, and invite international concern about the nuclear flashpoint.

Conclusion

The India-Pakistan relationship, born amidst bloodshed and mistrust, has rarely seen lasting peace. From pre-independence communal divides to modern-day cross-border terrorism, the trajectory has remained one of persistent hostility, punctuated by brief, unsuccessful peace efforts.

The recent Pahalgam attack adds another dark chapter, bringing into focus the enduring structural problems: Pakistan’s continued support for terrorism and India's uncompromising stance against it. As history shows, unless both nations fundamentally address the roots of their antagonism, the frost between them is unlikely to thaw — and may only deepen in the volatile years ahead.



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