Asteroid Apophis to Fly Past Earth in 2029: Will it get into a fatal collision ?

 

Scientists have known for more than two decades that asteroid 99942 Apophis will make an exceptionally close flyby of Earth on April 13, 2029. Although the 370-metre-wide asteroid will pass just 32,000 kilometres above Earth's surface—closer than many geostationary satellites—extensive studies confirm it poses no collision risk, not only in 2029 but for at least the next 100 years.

As Apophis approaches Earth, the planet's powerful gravity is expected to slow the asteroid and may alter its orbit, trigger "asteroid quakes," shift surface material, or even cause landslides. These changes could expose fresh layers, giving scientists a rare opportunity to study the asteroid's internal structure and composition.

A new study, published in Planetary Science by researchers led by Giulia Schettino and Alessandro Rossi, raises another possibility: Apophis could encounter human-made space debris orbiting Earth. While the likelihood is low, even a small collision could leave impact marks or contaminate the asteroid's surface, potentially affecting planned scientific observations.

The European Space Agency's Ramses mission and NASA's OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft are preparing to closely observe the flyby. Scientists hope the event will greatly improve our understanding of how planetary gravity influences asteroids. Researchers also stress that many small pieces of orbital debris remain undetected, highlighting the need for better sky surveys before Apophis arrives in 2029.

Despite the uncertainties, scientists remain confident that advances in observation technology will help track both the asteroid and surrounding debris, ensuring that this once-in-a-lifetime encounter yields valuable scientific discoveries.